Lately I have been a bit nervous about trading the EUR/USD due to some of the recent fluctuations. In for the long on 12/12, I hit a little dip that night then decided to swing trade a couple days thinking that it would go back up… it took a lot longer than I thought. Yesterday’s dip at around 17:00 Japan time is starting to be a noticeable pattern. A look across one week on the historical charts, there is at least a 20 – 30 pip drop every day. Let’s take a look at the past couple days, since this is all the data I have access to right now.

12/26 – 16:00 to 17:00 Close 1.43949; 17:00 to 18:00 Close 1.43797 –> Total ~15 pips… then 18:00 to 19:00 Close 1.43607 –> Total ~35 pips

12/27 – 16:00 to 17:00 Close 1.45066; 17:00 to 18:00 Close 1.44843 –> Total ~22 pips

12/28 – 16:15 to 16:30 Close 1.46636; 16:30 to 16:45 Close 1.46478 –> Total ~16 pips

12/31 – 16:30 to 16:45 Close 1.47330; 16:45 to 17:00 Close 1.47059 –> Total ~27 pips

While 12/28 was not in the 20 to 30 pip range, the drop in close price is generally more like the 12/31 drop and even much more some times. I wonder if this coincides with a sale spree that occurs at the London market opening? Was going to try and script this into a regular 16:45 automatic short trade with a tight stop-loss.

The chart above in 2007/10/30 through 2008/1/1 daily close price. It appears that the new support may be in the 1.45 range and the EUR will continue the 45 degree increase that we have experienced over the past year. See the five month chart below.